BUNDY COLUMN: Big Mac's legacy boils down to belief

Ladies and gentlemen of the jury, please be seated. This court of public opinion is now in session.

We’re here today to settle a question, a burning question on America’s mind for more than a decade now.

Did Mark McGwire have the raw power to break Roger Maris’ single-season home run record in 1998, or did performance-enhancing drugs give him the power to do so?

When you read all the evidence and consider the totality of circumstances surrounding the ’98 home run chase, the answer will be clear.

It is entirely possible Big Mac had the raw power to touch ’em all 70 times during the course of one summer.

Exhibit A — The gift

Born in Pomona, Calif., Oct. 1, 1963, Mark McGwire came out of the womb a power hitter destined to rewrite record books.

In his first Little League at-bat at age 8, McGwire hit an opposite-field homer to right. Three years later, he set a Claremont, Calif., Little League record with 13 home runs, a record that stood for two decades.

Throughout high school and college, McGwire continued to terrorize pitchers. During the 1981 American Legion season, he hit a team-record 13 home runs for the Claremont Cardinals.

From 1982-84 at Southern Cal, he hit a school-record 54 home runs. During his junior season in 1984, he hit an NCAA-leading 32 homers and was named the college player of the year.

After being drafted by the Oakland A’s in June of 1984, McGwire hit 48 home runs in 287 minor league games, the equivalent of two seasons.

In his first full season in the major leagues in 1987, McGwire annihilated a rookie record for home runs with 49. The old record of 38, set by Wally Berger in 1930 and matched by Frank Robinson in 1956, had stood for 57 years.

There’s a clear pattern here, ladies and gentlemen of the jury. A pattern of power. A pattern of smashing records.

And this was years before Big Mac was ever linked to performance-enhancing drugs.

Exhibit B — Expansion

Throughout the history of Major League Baseball, home runs have gone up in expansion years and subsequent years before eventually leveling off or seeing a decline.

When the league added two teams in 1961 and two more in 1962, home runs per game jumped from 1.72 in 1960 to 1.9 in ’61 and 1.86 in ’62.

When the league added four teams in 1969, home runs per game skyrocketed. They went from 1.22 in 1968 to 1.6 in ’69 and 1.76 in ’70.

When the league added two teams in 1977, home runs per game shot up from 1.16 in 1976 to 1.74 in ’77.

When the league added two teams in 1993, home runs per game went up from 1.44 in 1992 to 1.78 in ’93 and 2.06 in ’94.

And when the league added two teams in 1998, home runs per game rose from 2.04 in 1997 to 2.08 in ’98, 2.28 in ’99 and to an all-time high of 2.34 in 2000.

Again, ladies and gentlemen of the jury, there’s a clear pattern here. When Major League Baseball adds teams, home runs jump.

And why is that? Because when teams are added, rosters at all six levels of baseball — from the major leagues down to rookie ball — have to be filled. If the league expands by two teams in a season, 300 new players, including about 140 new pitchers are needed to fill the rosters.

That puts pitchers in the major leagues who aren’t ready to pitch at that level. One day, they’re pitching in, say, Charlotte or Birmingham. The next day, they’re pitching at Busch Stadium in St. Louis.

They make mistakes. They leave fastballs up. They hang breaking balls. And major league hitters like Mark McGwire feast.

Exhibit C — 1998

We all remember the 1998 baseball season, don’t we ladies and gentlemen of the jury? Big Mac and Sammy Sosa chasing each other around the country in a race to break Maris’ single-season home run record of 61 was great theater.

The chase made men, women, boys and girls remember why they fell in love with America’s pastime. And for some, it introduced them to a game they’d never gotten to know.

It was a magical season, to be sure. And one that has now been dragged through the warning track with allegations that players were using performance-enhancing drugs and admissions by some players, including Big Mac.

Amid all the celebration that surrounded the 1998 season and the talk of drugs in the years that have followed, there is something very pertinent that should not be lost, ladies and gentlemen of the jury.

As covered in Exhibit B, 1998 was an expansion year in which the league added two teams. Five years earlier in 1993, the league had also added two teams.

There were pitchers on major league mounds who had no business being there. Instead of learning to pitch in Triple-A or Double-A, they were fuel for the explosion of the long ball at the major-league level.

Of the record-breaking 70 home runs McGwire hit in 1998, 21 came off 20 pitchers in their first or second seasons in the major leagues.

That, ladies and gentlemen of the jury, should be an eye-opener.

Exhibit D — 1961

The summer of 1961 was another expansion season in which the pursuit of baseball’s single-season home run record captivated the country.

Yankee greats Roger Maris and Mickey Mantle were that year’s Big Mac and Sammy. With no ESPN and no Internet, Americans relied on their morning newspaper for thrilling news of the M&M Boys inching closer to the 60 home runs Babe Ruth swatted in 1927.

On the final day of the season against the Red Sox at Yankee Stadium, Maris cleared the right-field wall for the record. It was considered to be an amazing feat with its legitimacy never questioned the way McGwire’s record has been.

Ask yourself this, though, ladies and gentlemen of the jury. If it is believed Roger Maris — a man who hit more than 30 homers in a season just three times over a 12-year career — had the raw power to hit 61 in 1961, why is there doubt that Mark McGwire — a man who hit 49 homers as a rookie and more than 30 in each of his first four full seasons in the majors — could hit 70 in 1998?

And also ask yourself this. More than anything else, might both men have been the beneficiaries of expansion?

Exhibit E — Science

Ladies and gentlemen of the jury, hitting a baseball is the toughest skill in all of sport.

After a 95-mph fastball leaves a pitcher’s hand, it takes 0.4 seconds to reach the plate. In less than a half second, a batter must see the ball, recognize the type of pitch and location, and decide whether or not to swing.

If the batter swings 1/100th of a second too soon or too late, the ball goes foul. And in order to hit a home run, the ball must be struck one inch below center at a bat speed of 67 mph or higher.

As covered in Exhibit A, Mark McGwire had the innate ability to hit home runs at every level of baseball. He had tremendous bat speed, certainly greater than the 67 mph it takes to hit a home run.

So, ladies and gentlemen of the jury, how much did increased muscle mass due to the use of performance-enhancing drugs increase Big Mac’s bat speed and thus contribute to his home run totals?

That’s a question perhaps best answered by the University of California’s Sports Biomechanics Laboratory, which has painstakingly examined the scientific principles of baseball for decades.

Studies at the lab have determined that an increase of 1 mph to bat speed adds 6 feet to the distance a ball will travel. Using a hypothetical that McGwire’s muscle mass increased his bat speed five percent over the 67 mph it takes to hit a home run, which would be a lot, his home runs would have traveled 20 feet farther.

And, ladies and gentlemen of the jury, if you recall the seemingly nightly highlights of Big Mac’s big flies in 1998, not many came within 20 feet of scraping the wall.

Closing argument

In the midst of the home run chase in July of 1998, a very good Associated Press reporter named Steven Wilstein stumbled upon a bottle in McGwire’s locker labeled “ANDROSTENEDIONE,” which is a steroid.

Since then, ladies and gentlemen of the jury, Big Mac’s accomplishments have been under fire.

After years of silence, McGwire admitted this week to using performance-enhancing drugs. But McGwire, who constantly battled injuries all the way back to his high school days, said he only took PEDs because he thought they could help his body recover and help him stay on the field.

“I was given this gift (to hit home runs) by the man upstairs,” McGwire said. “The only reason I took steroids was for my health purposes. I did not take steroids to get any gain for any strength purposes.

“I’ve always had bat speed. … There is not a pill or an injection that is going to give me or any athlete the hand-eye coordination to hit a baseball. A pill or an injection will not hit a baseball.”

Possibility. Since 1998, that’s what’s really been on trial, ladies and gentlemen of the jury. And the evidence presented here today overwhelmingly supports the possibility that Mark McGwire had the power to break Maris’ record, steroids or no steroids.

The verdict ultimately rests with what each of you believes.

— E-mail Sam Bundy at sbundy@florencenews.com