THURSDAY WITH THIGPEN: Gubernatorial debate, Graham and Spratt

COLUMBIA – Every Thursday Dr. Neal Thigpen provides his insights on the week’s top political stories. Today we discuss the first gubernatorial debate and the wide-open race for governor, radio and TV ads critical of Lindsey Graham, and John Spratt’s bid for a 15th term in South Carolina’s 5th District.

QUESTION: Tuesday night, 10 of the 11 South Carolina gubernatorial candidates participated in the first debate for the opportunity to become the state’s next governor. It was the first time in state history that candidates from both parties participated in the same debate. Some of the topics discussed included global climate change, off-shore drilling, and the storage of nuclear waste. With so many candidates involved in the debate, is there anyone that stood out from the pack?

ANSWER: No. I don’t necessarily think that any one person stood out…overall my feeling was that they all seemed to be well informed and I didn’t hear anybody…make a gaffe or misspeak…the candidates benefited from the fact…that the topic of bounded…there were boundaries around what they were going to talk about…the thing was sponsored by the South Carolina Natural Resources Society and they knew…that they weren’t going to cover a whole lot more than the environment…and analogous topics like energy…which relates directly to the environment and natural resources…and so…they all came to it better prepared because the subject matter was bounded and they all seemed to be well prepared…you get into a debate where the subject matter is open…that’s a lot harder to prepare for…most of the answers…seemed to be fairly standard…if you’re looking for winners and losers. I don’t think there were any losers, but I would say the winners are some of the people that are regarded, in both parties, as back-runners…people who the people of the state don’t know very well…so they’re the winners in my estimation. 

QUESTION: Some observers have noted that this gubernatorial election may be one of the most wide-open races in recent memory. Is that a good or bad thing for voters? Who might be helped by such a wide-open race? Who might be hurt by it?

ANSWER: With such an early start…the primaries aren’t until next June and the general election is a year away…I would think that the back-runners who aren’t as well known…are the people who tend to be advantaged in a large field…now the big loser with a huge field…because you know the thing is going to get nasty in both parties…as we near the primary…and that will work a hardship on party unity in both parties…sometimes the bloodletting in primaries is so bad that it’s awful hard for the winning candidates to unite their respective parties and here you’ve got that on both sides this time.

QUESTION: In the last few weeks a group with ties to the oil industry has started running radio and television ads critical of Sen. Lindsey Graham’s support for the energy bill better known as “cap and trade.” The bill would place limits on carbon emissions and impose penalties if those limits are exceeded. Graham’s support for “cap and trade” was discussed during Tuesday’s gubernatorial debate, with Republicans criticizing the senator and calling the bill a “tax.” However, Democrats were generally supportive. Recently some business leaders and conservationists in the state have also expressed their support for Graham. What do you think of these radio and TV ads? Could they affect the senator’s stance on “cap and trade?”

ANSWER: If I know Lindsey (Graham), I don’t think it’ll affect him a bit…he knows his own mind and he’s very independent…he just doesn’t cast a vote in order to find pleasure with rank and file Republican conservatives in this state…that’s not his style…but he came to his own defense and got others to come to his defense…and it looks like…a lot of the more progressive people on natural resources and energy…were the ones that came to his defense…and a number of business people…so he did the right thing to respond because unanswered negative (ads) can be deadly…but I thought last night (at the debate) it was universal…that all five Republican contenders…were against ‘cap and trade’ and some of them…made remarks that condemned Lindsey (Graham)…but the bill has yet to be (addressed) on the senate side, so I think some of this might be premature…where these people got their hint (Graham supports the bill)…was that he wrote an article with Senator (John) Kerry (D-Mass.)…where they discussed the possibilities of “cap and trade,” but Lindsey (Graham) to my knowledge hasn’t come out for the entire thing…there are certain sub-portions of it that he tends to favor, but I think I’ve heard him say that there’s some things in it that he’s not in favor of…but this is just a continuing romp of the right-wing and conservative Republicans in South Carolina because they’ve got it in for Graham and not all of it’s related directly to “cap and trade.”

QUESTION: This week state Senator Mick Mulvaney announced his plans to challenge Democratic U.S. Representative John Spratt in South Carolina’s 5th District. The 67-year-old Spratt, who is seeking a 15th term, is the state’s longest-serving congressman after first being elected in 1982. Mulvaney says he decided to run after witnessing a crowd of a hundreds respond harshly to Spratt during a meeting on health care in Rock Hill. GOP leaders have said they consider Spratt to be vulnerable in his bid for reelection. However, to date, Spratt has soundly defeated all of his challengers. Could this race in 2010 be different? Or is Spratt still in a safe seat? 

ANSWER: John Spratt has proven to be a good fit for that district, even though the district has been trending Republican…and has gone Republican…in a number of elections…but he’s a person that is very difficult to paint as some liberal…Democratic member of congress…he’s a moderate and he’s from one of the old families in the district. He’s got the support of the business interests in the district…he always votes in their interests…and when challenged he can raise a good bit of money and he’s a pretty good campaigner…and (an attempt to unseat Spratt) hasn’t worked before. Look at Greg Norman last year. Norman was probably…a better challenger candidate than Mulvaney…and Norman was running against John (Spratt) in a presidential election year when the district was going to go Republican in the presidential race…(Republicans) may have a little bit more of an opportunity against him because John (Spratt) is so close, as chairman of the budget committee, to Nancy Pelosi. Now they tried to hang (Pelosi) around his neck last year (in the race against Norman) and it didn’t work…so John (Spratt) will take Mulvaney seriously…but I’d put my money on Spratt…and if Mulvaney made his decision to run based on that meeting (on health care in Rock Hill), he could be very misguided.

Dr. Neal Thigpen is a longtime political analyst and former political science professor at Francis Marion University, where he served as chairman of the department for 25 years. Active in state and local politics, Thigpen has served numerous times as a delegate to both the South Carolina and National Republican Conventions. We talk with Thigpen every week to discuss the latest in South Carolina politics.