Another New Year's List: Top 5 political stories for 2012

The best thing about the end of the year has to be the lists. From “best and worst of” to “top news makers” to “top sports plays” and more, you can’t beat a good list. As we bid adieu to 2011 and welcome in 2012, here’s another: my “Top Five Political Storylines” to pay attention to over the next 12 months.

Florence mayor’s race. The showdown in the Democratic primary between incumbent Mayor Stephen J. Wukela and longtime Councilman Ed Robinson is compelling for more reasons than just their history of butting heads. You might say, “How Florence goes, so goes the Pee Dee.” Leadership at this position is key not just for the city, but the region as a whole. Watch the tenor of this primary. Like many local races, vicious rumors and smear campaigns at the grassroots level are common and will play a huge role in this. Also, a debate between Wukela and Robinson (as well as Councilman Steve Powers if he decides to get into the race) would be a must-see event. This could be headed for a tight primary race like we saw in 2008, and it is probable that the winner will go on to a general election victory as well.

7th Congressional District. For the first time since 1933, the Pee Dee and Grand Strand will exclusively choose a representative in Congress. While fund raising will be important in both the Republican and Democratic fields, the Pee Dee/Grand Strand divide will make it important for candidates to put in as much face time in whatever region is more foreign to them. Visibility on the ground will be more important than building a war chest.

The Republican Primary will most likely require a runoff because there are so many candidates, but the Democrats will most likely be decided fairly quickly, although there’s no telling who will emerge from the still forming field.

Whoever gets the nod from either contest, if the lines aren’t changed by the U.S. Department of Justice, it will take a very strong Democrat to defeat what is sure to be a Republican frontrunner.

S.C. GOP Presidential Primary. The First in the South Primary has chosen the Republican nominee since 1980, but don’t be surprised if that trend is bucked in 2012. Less than two weeks removed from the New Hampshire primary on Jan. 10, South Carolina’s Jan. 21 showdown will result in a lot of campaigning in a short period of time.

No matter who wins in Iowa and New Hampshire, there will be a feeling of desperation for many when they hit the Palmetto. There is no guarantee South Carolina will play king maker as it has the last eight times for the GOP. Even if one candidate picks up two of the first three contests, the nominee won’t be certain until Super Tuesday on March 6 at the earliest, and don’t be surprised if a nominee isn’t decided upon until April, maybe even May.

Downtown development. No race here, but 20 years worth of planning could come to fruition in downtown Florence next year as more dominos fall into place. And there is a political side to this issue. There is the mayoral race, but also the matter of two council seats that could change should Steve Powers and/or Octavia Williams-Blake decide not to seek re-election. That means the political dynamic between the Florence Downtown Development Board and council – which has been somewhat stable during the past four years – will be up for grabs. Regardless, growth downtown will continue and hopefully that construction will lead to feet on the ground downtown.

Timmonsville council. Timmonsville is always volatile, but with changes among council members, an ongoing SLED investigation and lingering legal issues from 2011, most notably charges against Clerk of Court Wilhelmina Washington for forgery, you never know what’s going to happen.

Pay particular attention to how those city council changes affect the situation of City Administrator Mark Fountain and Treasurer Dora Lee. There is a sense among the new contingent of council that they would perhaps like to see Fountain and Lee part ways with Timmonsville. Expect drama. Lots and lots of drama.

John Sweeney covers politics for the Morning News. Contact him at 843-317-7276, or be email at jsweeney@florencenews.com