Special elections a threat for midterm races

The GOP swept statewide gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey yesterday, a result that does not bode well for the Democrats in the upcoming 2010 mid-term elections.

Though the results of yesterday’s election will not significantly change the current balance of power, the races are widely regarded as a litmus test for the 2010 midterm elections, where the entire House of Representatives, a third of the Senate and two thirds of gubernatorial posts are up for grabs.

This rousing point was not lost on the Obama Administration, which failed to bolster meaningful support for the Democratic gubernatorial candidates,
Jon Corzine (D, NJ) and Creigh Deeds (D, VA), despite hitting the campaign trail hard in support of their Party’s candidates.

The GOP sweep of statewide races in Virginia restored Republicans to the posts of Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General and in the State Legislature. This represented a sharp departure from a year ago when the state voted for a Democratic President for the first time since 1964. Despite the fact that President Barack Obama flew into Virginia and offered a rousing sermon on the virtues of a Democratic candidate, Republican Bob McDonnell won by a landslide.

The results in New Jersey were perhaps more telling. Early on, incumbent Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine was expected to handily beat Republican Chris Christie. But a late surge—perhaps hauled along by increasing voter nervousness over unemployment and the sagging economy allowed a Republican challenger to capture New Jersey for the first time in over a decade. By recapturing a traditionally Democratic seat, the Republicans showed the Democrats that independent voters are swinging away from Obama—the candidate they played such a vital role in electing just one year ago.

Fueled by fears of double-digit inflation, a sagging economy, the President’s failure to enact health care reform, fermenting discontent over President Obama’s spending policies and industry takeovers, the voters are sending a message. No longer will the President’s calm, measured words about facilitating change be enough to carry the day. He must actually accomplish something of note or else the Democrats will face stiff challenges in 2010.

Even the Democrats seem to be treating the New Jersey and Virginia election results as a rebuke of the Obama administration. The day after the election results, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid told the press that Obama’s signature proposal--health care reform-- may not get done before the end of the year. This sends a clear message that Democratic legislators are hesitant to attach themselves to Obama’s controversial program before the elections. This is a clear sign that even the Democrats view these special elections as a sign of fermenting discontent with President Obama.

Of course, no one wants to talk about it but race plays a role. A year ago, the country was aglow with the idea of electing this country’s first Black American President. With Obama, there was great hope that the country had taken an astonishing step away from its history of slavery and institutionalized racism and toward a post-racial era. In one pull of the lever, hundreds of thousands of white voters felt as if they were wiping away their collective guilt about America’s deplorable racial past.

But a year has passed and the President who promised profound change has achieved little. Without some policy successes in the near future, expect what seemed unthinkable just nine months ago--a rebuke of the Democratic Party in the 2010 mid terms.