Don't bank on quiet hurricane season

TAMPA — We haven’t heard much from the tropics this hurricane season, which is nudging close to a third of the way through its six-month run.

So far, the season has yet to produce a tropical depression, much less a named storm.

So, does a slow start portend a tranquil season?

Sometimes.

But mostly not.

Since 1940, 20 seasons have waited until after July 20 to produce the first storm, according to an analysis compiled by meteorologists at the National Weather Service office in Ruskin.

Most quickly made up for a sluggish beginning and sprouted 10 or more storms before the season ended Nov. 30.

Only four years remained calm with a half-dozen or fewer hurricanes or tropical storms.

Hurricane experts say there is no link between the season’s first two months and how active a season will turn out to be.

“There is no relationship at all,” said Dennis Feltgen, spokesman for the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

There can be several causes for a season that sputters the first two months, he said.

One could be water temperatures that are cooler than normal. Another could be strong winds miles above land blowing from the west that can inhibit hurricanes from forming, called shear.

Either condition or both may thwart storms early but may not last.

“There are no guarantees at all what will happen for the rest of the year,” Feltgen said.

In the season’s early months, the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea and waters around the Bahamas are the main areas where hurricanes can form. Shear has been especially strong so far this year in those storm nurseries, he said.

Around mid-August, the main hurricane formation area shifts to the Atlantic Ocean.

Some of those slow-starting seasons were notable, especially for Florida.

The 2004 hurricane season had a sluggish start but merely packed a highly eventful season into the final four months with 14 storms. Nine hit land, including four that struck Florida.

And 1969 started slowly but managed to produce 17 named storms, though only three hit land, one in Florida.

On the other end of the scale, 1992 had a slow beginning with the first named storm not appearing until August. The season had only six hurricanes or tropical storms, but one was Hurricane Andrew, which savaged South Florida.

The weather service examination of the 20 slow-starting seasons since 1940 also showed:

• 10 seasons had more than 10 named storms, the average number for a season, and two other seasons had 10 storms;

• Florida was hit by more than one storm in three of the seasons: four in 2004, and three in 1998 and 1947;

• One storm hit Florida in seven of the seasons, and Florida had no storms in 10 of the seasons reviewed;

• All 20 seasons had at least one storm that made landfall.