THURSDAY WITH THIGPEN: End to impeachment

COLUMBIA – Every Thursday Dr. Neal Thigpen provides his insights on the week’s top political stories. Today we discuss the formal end to impeachment, what’s next for the governor, and a Republican list targeting John Spratt.

QUESTION: The S.C. House Judiciary Committee voted Wednesday against impeaching Gov. Mark Sanford, following the recommendation given last week by the subcommittee. Instead, the 25-member panel voted unanimously to rebuke the governor for bringing “ridicule, dishonor, disgrace, and shame” to the state. Now that the possibility of impeachment is officially behind him, what do you think the future holds for Gov. Sanford? Is there anything he can do in his final year of office that can change his legacy? Or will he always be remembered as the governor who disappeared for five days to have an affair in Argentina?

ANSWER: I think the latter, no question about it. He’ll be remembered, unfortunately for him and the people of the state…as the governor who disappeared…left his post, didn’t notify anybody as to where he was going or how he could be reached…he might be able to hang on to his governorship…but it’s a black mark for him…certainly he’s not going to be all that effective in the next 13 months…he’s kind of just going to twist slowly in the wind…and this rebuke is nothing to sneeze at, to the extent that it’s pretty brutal and pretty direct…I don’t imagine that there will be a vote in either house against it…it’ll probably pass the first day or two of the legislative session…the language in that thing is pretty rough…but there’s going to be a lot of people that feel that’s about what he deserves.

QUESTION: Last week, Jenny Sanford filed for divorce and many observers have noted that the governor is losing more than a wife, but also a close political advisor. In his 2000 book, “The Trust Committed to Me,” Gov. Sanford detailed the important contributions his wife made to his campaigns for Congress and governor. What does Gov. Sanford lose politically from a divorce?

ANSWER: The divorce is just icing on the cake in terms of what he’s lost…he’s got no political future that I can imagine…in terms of elected public office…in South Carolina…he might move to another state and start a new political career if he could, but certainly not here…the legacy, as we’ve just said…he’ll be remember as the governor who was AWOL…he’s going to lose a lot with this divorce…Jenny Sanford…she’s very, very smart…and she’s been a big asset to him in his campaigns…for Congress in the 1st District in 1994…rumor has it that she was the one that got him elected…mapped out the campaign and came up with the strategy…plus she’s got a lot of money…she’s the one with the money of the two…with this divorce on the grounds of adultery…this thing could be very hard on him financially…he’s not a needy person himself, he comes from some money…but this is going to cost him plenty…he’s got four youngsters and she’ll get child support…when he leaves office…he likes to wear that Ivy League blue blazer but he might be wearing a barrel with suspenders…and who would hire him? How’s he going to sustain himself financially once he’s out of office? Would a corporation hire him? Well maybe, I don’t know…he might wind up in politics…running one of these PACs (political action committee)…supporting individual candidates and raising money…he likes to refer to himself as a tragic figure…some of that’s self pity…but I think that’s about as accurate a description…as you can find.

QUESTION: U.S. Rep. John Spratt has been added to a list of Democratic lawmakers that GOP strategists hope to convince to retire prior to the 2010 elections. The list, compiled by the National Republican Congressional Committee, is known informally as the “Dem Retirement Assault List.” It includes 17 members that the NRCC hopes could be convinced to retire, rather than a face difficult reelection bid. Many of the lawmakers on the list are from districts that were carried by Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) in the 2008 presidential election. Republicans are hopeful that the recent retirement of two Democratic representatives (John Tanner, D-TN and Dennis Moore, D-KS) in conservative districts could begin a wave of retirements that would lead to open-seat elections. Spratt won reelection in 2008 with 62 percent of the vote and he could face state Sen. Mick Mulvaney (R-Lancaster) in the upcoming election. Is there any chance the 67-year-old Spratt could retire?

ANSWER: Oh sure there’s a chance he could, but I rather doubt that he would. As we’ve said in the past (Spratt’s) 5th Congressional District has been trending Republican in presidential elections for some time…and in state elections the 5th (District) a lot of times goes Republican…but he’s been able to maintain himself in office…even against some decent Republican candidates…so I would say that probably the NRCC is wishful thinking…now that doesn’t mean that 2010 isn’t going to be a big pick-up year in U.S. House seats for the Republicans…if the economy continues the way it is or grows worse…that’ll be the major issue…it’s predicted now…possibly the loss of 25 to 30 seats for the Democrats…and they’re all in marginal districts, but a lot of them got swept in 2006 and 2008 and that’s not the case with Spratt…he’s been in (office) since 1982…he’s a pretty tough, solid member of (Congress)…so I think of those 17, if there’s anybody likely to retire it won’t be Spratt…(the most the NRCC can do) is get poll data and let it go public…and try to publicize the strength of their challenger candidates…but this is wishful thinking stuff…certainly that would be the case with John Spratt…you’re not going to coax him not to run again.

Dr. Neal Thigpen is a longtime political analyst and former political science professor at Francis Marion University, where he served as chairman of the department for 25 years. Active in state and local politics, Thigpen has served numerous times as a delegate to both the state and National Republican Conventions. We talk with Thigpen every week to discuss the latest in South Carolina politics.