Meteorologist: Watch track, speed, intensity

A trend that started on the first day of June could point to a possible hurricane impact for the Carolinas this season. That’s the word from Steve Pfaff, warning coordinator and meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Wilmington, N.C.
The senior forecaster was the guest speaker at this past week’s annual Marion County hurricane preparedness meeting, organized by the county's Emergency Management Director, Linda Grice. This year the meeting was in the Progress Energy building on U.S. Highway 76. Milt Seekins, one of the state's Emergency Management Division's regional coordinators, was at the meeting of local emergency responders. Seekins serves as a liaison to the state to help distribute requested resources in disaster responses. Several Marion County agencies were represented at the Hurricane Preparedness meeting.
Pfaff presented statistical information on past hurricane seasons and discussed the 2008 season and new techniques and reporting procedures. According to the meteorologist, the southeast region has suffered the most from hurricanes, with billions of dollars in damages. He added there has been an exponential increase, highlighting Katrina’s 2005 landfall that resulted in $84.6 billion in damages. Hurricane Hugo is the sixth costliest storm with $13.5 billion in 1989.
The prediction for 2008 is that there will be 12 to 16 named tropical storms this hurricane season, which ends Nov. 30, and that two to five of those becoming major hurricanes. Pfaff said the possible threat of storms reaching the Carolinas is due to the El Nino and La Nina factors. Neutral years produce more storms on average and the North Atlantic Oscillation brings a tropical ridge of high pressure to the Atlantic Basin, increasing chances of a storm tracking toward the southeast by 60 percent.
According to Pfaff, the worst possible scenario for the Carolinas is a Bermuda high-pressure system pulling storms along. Marion County’s biggest threats from hurricanes are from tornadoes, wind damage and inland flooding. However, “it’s the track, speed, and intensity,” to keep a close eye on, he said. Checking maps on the NWS Web site, for hazards, warnings and probability graphics, are good product tools to view conditions, he said. Extreme wind warnings are reserved for category three storms, informing that the eye wall of the storm is passing through the area.
Grice, various city and county officials, Progress Energy employees, school shelters manager Al Blake, emergency response crews and law enforcement officers attended the meeting.
Shelter locations in Marion County, primarily open for those being evacuated from the coast but also for those in the county who live in substandard housing, are Mullins High School, Creek Bridge High School and Britton’s Neck Elementary School. They are opened when evacuations from the state's coast are mandated by the Governor. Johnakin Middle School, Palmetto Middle School, Marion High School and the Mullins Nursing Center are additional voluntary and backup shelters, Grice said.
Keith Ray Johnson, senior craft and technical trainer, along with a crew from Progress Energy closed the meeting with a live electrical demonstration for first responders and emergency service personnel to stress the dangers of live electrical lines. The team showcased their expertise with dealing with live electrical lines and their jobs' danger, recreating a number of live voltage scenarios such as downed power lines, tree limbs, and digs on underground lines.